A Framework for Modelling Thermal Load Sensitivity Across Life

Forecasts of vulnerability to climate warming require an integrative understanding of how species are exposed to, are damaged by, and recover from thermal stress in natural environments. The sensitivity of species to temperature depends on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of thermal stress. Thus, there is a generally recognized need to move beyond physiological metrics based solely on critical thermal limits and integrate them with natural heat exposure regimes. Here we propose the thermal load sensitivity (TLS) framework, which integrates biophysical principles for quantifying exposure with physiological principles of the dynamics of damage and repair processes in driving sublethal impacts on organisms. Building upon the established thermal death time (TDT) model, which integrates both the magnitude and duration of stress, the TLS framework attempts to disentangle the accumulation of damage and subsequent repair processes that alter responses to thermal stress. With the aid of case studies and reproducible simulation examples, we discuss how the TLS framework can be applied to enhance our understanding of the ecology and evolution of heat stress responses. These include assessing thermal sensitivity across diverse taxonomic groups, throughout ontogeny, and for modular organisms, as well as integrating additional stressors in combination with temperature. We identify critical research opportunities, knowledge gaps, and novel ways of integrating physiological measures of thermal sensitivity to improve understanding and predictions of thermal vulnerability at various scales across life.

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Publication Details

Journal
Global Change Biology
Published
2025-07-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70315
Citations
15
Primary Topic
Physiological and biochemical adaptations
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
25.74

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article

A Framework for Modelling Thermal Load Sensitivity Across Life

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15 citations
Global Change Biology
Physiological and biochemical adaptations
25.74
article

A Framework for Modelling Thermal Load Sensitivity Across Life

Ben J. Kefford, Enrico L. Rezende, Octavio Jiménez‐Robles, Susana Clusella‐Trullas, Pieter A. Arnold, Daniel W. A. Noble, Samuel C. Andrew, Adrienne B. Nicotra, Lydia K. Guja, Renée M. Marchin, Keith A. Christian, Lauren B. Buckley, Verónica F. Briceño, Karel Mokany, Sonya R. Geange, Michael Kearney, Andrea Leigh, Vanessa Kellermann, Joanne M. Bennett
article en
15 citations

Abstract

Forecasts of vulnerability to climate warming require an integrative understanding of how species are exposed to, are damaged by, and recover from thermal stress in natural environments. The sensitivity of species to temperature depends on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of thermal stress. Thus, there is a generally recognized need to move beyond physiological metrics based solely on critical thermal limits and integrate them with natural heat exposure regimes. Here we propose the thermal load sensitivity (TLS) framework, which integrates biophysical principles for quantifying exposure with physiological principles of the dynamics of damage and repair processes in driving sublethal impacts on organisms. Building upon the established thermal death time (TDT) model, which integrates both the magnitude and duration of stress, the TLS framework attempts to disentangle the accumulation of damage and subsequent repair processes that alter responses to thermal stress. With the aid of case studies and reproducible simulation examples, we discuss how the TLS framework can be applied to enhance our understanding of the ecology and evolution of heat stress responses. These include assessing thermal sensitivity across diverse taxonomic groups, throughout ontogeny, and for modular organisms, as well as integrating additional stressors in combination with temperature. We identify critical research opportunities, knowledge gaps, and novel ways of integrating physiological measures of thermal sensitivity to improve understanding and predictions of thermal vulnerability at various scales across life.

Global Change BiologyVol. 31(7)
University of Technology Sydney (AU), Australian National University (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Charles Sturt University (AU), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (CL), The University of Melbourne (AU), University of Canberra (AU), La Trobe University (AU), University of Washington (US), Stellenbosch University (ZA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), Australian National Botanic Gardens (AU), Charles Darwin University (AU), Center of Applied Ecology & Sustainability (CL), ACT Government (AU), University of Bergen (NO), Monash University (AU), Western Sydney University (AU)
Australian Government, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australian National University, University of Canberra, Australian Research Council
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Physiological and biochemical adaptations
25.74
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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