The Unified State Exam and Academic Performance: A Three-Year Analysis of Relationships Across Selection Method and Gender in University Students

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of current university admission tests in selecting qualified students in a public university by measuring the extent to which an applicant’s performance in admission tests can predict his/her academic performance after enrolling at the university. As a second aim, this study compares the academic performance of two groups of students that enrolled at the university through either an admission test or an Olympiad program. For this purpose, two distinct groups of students from a large public university were recruited in 2018. The first group enrolled at the university through the unified state exam (n = 998) and the second one did via an Olympiad (n = 465). Throughout their academic years, their performance was monitored and recorded at the end of each academic year. The data was collected through an automated survey, which gathered basic information such as the type of enrollment method, university entrance test score, the current faculty, and academic performance in various subjects. Results of regression analysis revealed that the Unified State Exam scores significantly predicted cumulative academic performance at the end of the first, second, and third academic years. However, the strength of the link was different across the four studied faculties. Also, there was a statistically significant difference between the academic performance of Olympiad and non-Olympiad students across gender and faculty. Although these findings provide empirical evidence supporting the use of the Unified State Exam as a reliable tool for predicting future academic performance of students in public universities, we recommend that universities should not underestimate the importance of alternative pathways, such as Olympiad programs, for enrolling in higher education.