Assessing the Impact of Climate-Induced Water Scarcity on Agricultural Sustainability in Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study of Western Rajasthan, India

The semi-arid region of Western Rajasthan, encompassing districts such as Jodhpur, Barmer, Jaisalmer, Bikaner, and Nagaur, is increasingly facing the twin challenges of climate variability and water scarcity, which are severely affecting its agricultural sustainability. This research aims to assess the spatio-temporal patterns of climate-induced water scarcity and its impact on agriculture within this ecologically fragile region. Utilizing remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the study analyzes long-term trends in rainfall, groundwater depletion, and changes in land use and crop patterns over the past two decades (2000–2025). Climate data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), groundwater level reports from the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), and satellite imagery from Landsat and MODIS are employed to map environmental changes. Statistical tools such as the Mann-Kendall trend test and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis are used to correlate water availability with agricultural productivity. The findings reveal significant reductions in groundwater levels and erratic monsoon behavior, leading to shifts in cropping patterns, lower yields, and increased vulnerability of small and marginal farmers. The study highlights the urgent need for integrated water management, promotion of drought-resilient crops, and sustainable agricultural practices. It concludes with recommendations aimed at strengthening climate resilience and ensuring food security in one of India’s most water-stressed regions. The research offers valuable insights for policymakers, environmental planners, and agricultural stakeholders working to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change in arid and semi-arid regions.