Long-term forecasting: A MAED application for residential water heating in South Africa (2024–2040)

This paper provides an analysis of water heating within South Africa's residential energy demand. Using MAED, this work models four scenarios to examine the impact of varying degrees of governmental intervention and policy implementation, specifically SANS10400-XA2, on water heating energy consumption from 2020 to 2040 across income groups. Results show that solar thermal use, with effective support, could reduce low-to-middle income households' reliance on carbon-intensive fuels by ∼30 %. Findings also indicate that strong governmental support is essential to reach 16 % of electricity savings across income groups. In the reference scenario, high-income households rely entirely on electricity, while LMI households use 31 % electricity and utilize fossil fuels. Under basic support, LMI electricity use drops by 50 %, but fossil fuels increase relative to BAU. Moderate support continues LMI reliance on fossil fuels due to infrastructure limitations. High support, causes both electricity and fossil fuel use to decrease for LMI. In pursuit of equitable access to sustainable energy technologies, the level of aid determines whether LMI households utilize 0 %, 9 %, or 35 % of solar thermal energy to meet their final water heating needs. To realize the potential energy efficiency benefits and emissions reductions, targeted policies and infrastructure improvements are crucial. If less wealthy households are not considered, they may struggle to transition to cleaner energy solutions and remain dependent on polluting fuels, leading to negative health and environmental implications. Results from this study indicate that supporting solar thermal technologies and improving water access can enhance living standards for vulnerable populations while simultaneously mitigating climate change effects. • Analysis of water heating demand within South Africa's residential sector. • Comparison of energy use between high income and low-to-middle income households. • Review of the effects of successful implementation of the South African National Standards. • Discussion of varying levels of supportive for electricity saving policies.