Scenario-based Assessment of Decarbonized Energy System Towards 2050: Analyses of Low Emission Technology in Thailand

Thailand’s energy sector has been the dominant contributor to national CO2 emissions, accounting for approximately 89% of total emissions for decades due to its heavy reliance on conventional fuels across both demand and supply sectors. In response, the country has pledged to become a carbon-neutral economy by 2050, with the energy sector playing a central role in this transition. This study examines sectoral emissions mitigation, energy demand and supply dynamics, and electricity production costs from 2018 to 2050 using the integrated LEAP-NEMO framework. The findings indicate that Thailand can achieve its carbon neutrality target in the early 2050s through the widespread adoption of energy-efficient technologies, reducing 46% of final energy consumption. Additionally, the results highlight a significant shift towards electricity and biomass on the demand side, alongside a substantial increase in renewable energy generation, which must reach at least 67% of total electricity production. To further support decarbonization, natural gas-based power generation will require integration with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, while green hydrogen will play a crucial role as a clean fuel alternative across the transport, industrial, and electricity sectors.