Indonesia’s Mining Downstream Industry in 2045: Applying Scenario Planning for Testing Corporate Diversification Strategy-Study Case of an Indonesian Mining Company

The plausible future scenarios of Indonesia's Mining Downstream Industry in 2045 will be created in this study as the basis for strategy testing.The corporate diversification strategy of Indonesia's mining group company toward sustainable futures is used as a case study to check its adequacy and find improvement recommendations.The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA) is used in this scenario project, considering its suitability for strategy testing by following a full iteration process of reframing-reperception to refine the current strategy.The scenario creation used inductive methodology of all key driving forces gathered from a set of questionnaires, interviews, and focus group discussions with key respondents.Thirtythree aggregated key driving forces that can shape Indonesia's Mining Downstream Industry in 2045 were identified.Three scenarios are created from these key-driving forces: "The Endless Winter", which emphasizes the dominancy of foreign actors and factors indicated by the prolonged and harsh state of the global geopolitical situation; "The Monsoon Rain", which emphasizes the dominancy of disruptive technological development factors, ESG requirement, and customer behavior change towards cleaner products, and "The Uneven Harvest Season", which emphasizing dominance role of Government of Indonesia in pushing mining resources nationalism and shaping the domestic mining-based industrialization.This research will not dig into detailed calculations of the economic feasibility of mining downstream business portfolios.Instead, this research will focus more on visualizing the plausible futures of the downstream mining industry as the basis to test the strategy.The selected mineral commodities are coal and other minerals without, including petroleum and natural gas.