Intrinsic and Relative Valuation of PT Aneka Tambang, Tbk: Navigating through Commodity Market Volatility and Industry Transformation

Aneka Tambang, Tbk is the state-owned mining company of Indonesia, producing primarily gold, nickel, alumina, silver, along with several other metals.Gold contributes 69% of ANTAM's net sales, while nickel contributes 27%.Despite the shift in demand from the industry toward electric vehicles, ANTAM prepares for an increase in nickel production but holds back the challenge due to the low regulated nickel price set by the government.The core challenge of this research will be to evaluate the valuation of ANTAM for the next 5 years, considering these challenges and focusing on the influence of some commodities.Using a quantitative approach, this study comprises financial analysis, PESTEL analysis, intrinsic valuation using Discounted Cash Flow, and relative and sensitivity analysis.The results show that ANTAM's intrinsic value is at Rp. 1,878 per share, higher than the market price of Rp. 1,360, indicating possible undervaluation.Sensitivity analysis highlighted that the two most important factors were revenue and COGS.Recommendations include long-term growth in ANTAM stock, monitoring of the revenue and COGS, and leveraging market conditions.Management needs to extend production efficiency, control costs, and ensure financial transparency, while stakeholders need to keep themselves updated on performance and market trends.