A Method for Monitoring the Reliability of Technical Systems by Identifying the Entropy of the Causes of their Failures

Introduction. Under designing, a large safety margin of components and units is included at the calculation stage, which does not exclude premature failures that occur at random. The consequences of such failures are not only economic losses, but also threats to the safety of people and the environment. In modern literature, the topic of assessing the reliability of machines, considered as complex probabilistic systems that take into account not only the dynamic parameters under operation, but also the processes of manufacturing the components of the system, is not sufficiently covered. Therefore, to provide for the targeted management of the reliability of machines as complex technical systems, it is required to apply the principles of cybernetics. The research objective is to study the method of monitoring the reliability of technical systems by identifying the entropy of the causes of their failures. Materials and Methods. The materials for the study were statistical data on machine part failures obtained through long-term observation of the working condition of basic parts of lifting-and-shifting machines, as well as road and construction machines. The paper used mathematical statistics and probability theory — a parametric method for assessing reliability with a simplified approach, which assumes the deterministic behavior of the machine as a system with a predetermined functioning that does not depend on external circumstances. The value of the safety margin is taken at a level greater than one. Results. The degree of impact of the uncertainty of the reference values of the operating process, design features, manufacturing technique of machine parts and the malfunctions that occur in them, on the final probability of failure-free operation and reliability of machines is determined. Discussion and Conclusion. The analysis of the theory of verification calculations of machines confirmed the compliance of the obtained results with regulatory requirements. The conducted studies have proven that machines are deterministic systems, whose behavior is specified in advance by the calculation. Therefore, it can be argued that the developed method of monitoring the reliability of technical systems, based on identifying the entropy of the causes of failures, will allow establishing a quantitative and qualitative relationship between the design, material, size, manufacturing technique of machine parts, and failures that occur in them.