How to Fight Turkey’s Authoritarian Turn

Abstract: The arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, marks the latest turn in Turkey’s prolonged autocratization process, signaling a possible shift from competitive to the hegemonic authoritarianism of Russia and Venezuela. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s regime intends to consolidate more power and weaken the ever-growing opposition using partisan courts and media. However, Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian regime may soon reach its material and coercive limits, inhibiting Turkey’s transition to hegemonic authoritarianism. Moreover, Turkey’s strong electoral traditions, diverse society, and popular resistance mobilized by the opposition render such a transition improbable. The Turkish case thus demonstrates how structural factors and political agency, in tandem, shape the prospects of deepening autocratization and re-democratization.