The Myth of Democratic Resilience

Abstract: Recent accounts of democratic “U-turns” in countries such as Bangladesh, Brazil and Poland overstate the extent of democratic resilience. Analyzing a database of countries that have gone from being democratic to authoritarian and back again since 1994 reveals that almost all failed to sustain their recoveries, a reality this essay argues is driven primarily by the lasting impact of authoritarian episodes and the incentives new governments face to retain the powers of their predecessors in an international context that is increasingly accommodating of authoritarian rule. This finding highlights the importance of critically evaluating claims of resilience to develop a more realistic understanding of the threats to global democracy.