Assessing Climate Impact on Heritage Buildings in Trentino—South Tyrol with High-Resolution Projections

Climate variations impact the preservation of heritage buildings, necessitating a strategic understanding of potential effects to effectively guide preservation efforts. This study analyzes temperature- and precipitation-dependent climate-heritage indices in Trentino–South Tyrol using EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for the period 1971–2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The selected indices were calculated with climdex-kit and relied on bias-adjusted temperature and precipitation data with a 1 km spatial resolution. The obtained results indicate a geographically punctuated increase in biomass accumulation on horizontal surfaces, a slight decreasing trend in freeze–thaw events, an increase in growing degree days indicating a small, heightened insect activity, and a rise in heavy precipitation days. The Scheffer Index shows a significantly increased potential for wood degradation, particularly under the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the Wet-Frost Index remains consistently low. Finally, according to each identified hazard, adaptive solutions are suggested. These findings provide critical insights into future climate impacts on heritage buildings in the region, aiding stakeholders in planning targeted interventions. The study emphasizes the crucial role of integrating detailed climate data into heritage preservation strategies, advocating for the inclusion of future risk analysis in the “knowledge path” in order to enhance the resilience of buildings.