Understanding Paradigm Shifts and Asynchrony in Environmental Governance: A Mixed-Methods-Study of China’s Sustainable Development Transition

Escalating environmental challenges severely impede global sustainable development, prompting countries worldwide to innovate environmental governance approaches. As the world’s largest developing country, China’s paradigm shifts in environmental governance from “pollution control” to “ecological conservation” embody many inherent complexities. To investigate the evolution and underlying logic of such paradigm shifts, this study introduces a nested asynchrony framework. Employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative content analysis, Social Network Analysis, and machine learning, this study analyzes China’s environmental planning documents since the 11th Five-Year Plan to clarify the process of the paradigm shifts and their driving mechanisms. The principal conclusions derived from this study are as follows: (1) Environmental planning is uniquely valued as an analytical lens for identifying paradigm shifts in environmental governance. (2) The paradigm shifts in environmental governance are temporally distinct, wherein transformations in value norms precede structural reforms, while shifts in action logic and disciplinary foundations exhibit path-dependent inertia. (3) Inconsistencies within the planning authority framework spanning central and local governments impede the effective allocation and implementation of resources. This study reconstructs the transformation pathway of environmental governance paradigms, validates computational methods in policy analysis, and presents a longitudinal framework for tracking governance evolution. Applicable to other countries or sectors undergoing similar sustainable development transitions, the framework can provide broader utility.