The Green Economy in Brazil and the Determining Factors for the Transition: An Analysis using the STIRPAT Method

This article aims to assess the factors influencing the transition to a green economy in Brazil using the stirpat model. It examines emissions (1981–2021) and deforestation (1991–2021) as dependent variables. The results show that gdp per capita is negatively correlated with emissions due to deindustrialization and technological advancements. Energy consumption is positively associated with emissions because of urban expansion, reflecting a preference for economic growth over environmental concerns. Agricultural expansion is inversely correlated with emissions, suggesting potential carbon sequestration in rural areas. Forest cover decreases with gdp per capita, population growth, and energy use, indicating forest loss linked to economic growth and urbanization. The study underscores the need for tailored socio-technical transitions, promoting green sectors, robust environmental regulations, and sustainable practices to foster innovation, decarbonization, and equitable development.