Evaluating the Prospects for US–Southeast Asia Relations under the Second Trump Administration

What are the prospects for the relationship between Trump 2.0 and Southeast Asia? The ties between the US and this region have been inconsistent, with periods of intense engagement but also moments of US distraction or preoccupation with other regions and issues. Given this historical context and the current challenges of discerning a clear strategy toward the region, this article evaluates the possible approach of Trump 2.0 toward Southeast Asia through a series of scenarios: maintenance of the status quo, increased competition, and retrenchment (either by accommodation or by withdrawal). The three scenarios are explored through foreign policy approaches and multilateral platforms, as well as through the South China Sea dispute. We argue that the status quo scenario is the most plausible, but that increased competition is also likely.