The Contribution of Conservation Agriculture on Food Security in Mainland Tanzania

Introduction:Conservation agriculture (CA) is increasingly recognized as one of the most practical and promising strategies for achieving sustainable agricultural practices. This study aimed to explore the impact of CA on food security in Mainland Tanzania, using time series data from 1988 to 2023. The primary focus was to evaluate both the short-term and long-term effects of key CA practices such as minimal soil tillage, water management, crop diversification, and agroforestry on food security, while also investigating causal relationships and forecasting future trends. Methodology: To estimate the effects of CA on food security, the study utilized the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which allows for the analysis of both short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The Granger Causality test was applied to determine the direction of causality between CA adoption and food security. Furthermore, food security was forecasted for the years 2024 to 2028 using the ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model, providing predictions based on historical trends. Results: The study’s findings revealed that CA has a positive long-term impact on food security, though its effects in the short term were negative. A unidirectional causality was identified, with food security driving the adoption of CA practices. The ARIMA model projections indicated steady increases in food security from 2024 to 2028, with forecasted values of 3532.187, 3682.171, 3837.568, 3996.199, and 4158.478 metric tons. Conclusion: The study concludes that CA practices are vital for improving food security in Tanzania. It recommends prioritizing practices such as minimal soil tillage, water management, crop diversification, and agroforestry to enhance the impact of CA. By focusing on these practices, the adoption of CA can be promoted as a key strategy for improving food security in the country.