Scenario Forecasting of Uzbekistan's Export Demand to Russia Using a VECM Framework

This paper analyzes scenario forecasts of exports of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the Russian Federation using a vector error correction model based on monthly series of macroeconomic data for the period 2013-2022. This model takes into account structural breaks associated with the liberalization of the foreign ex-change market, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The model includes also a set of exogenously defined variables such as the gold and oil world prices.