Prediction of Telkomsel 4G LTE Card Sales using The K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm

Accurate sales prediction is a critical challenge in business decision-making, as factors such as data imbalance, outliers, and overfitting may compromise the reliability of predictive models. This study aims to develop a precise model for predicting card sales using the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithm and to offer recommendations for improving prediction quality by addressing issues related to data imbalance and overfitting. The KNN algorithm is applied to analyze a card sales dataset, with preprocessing steps that include detecting missing values, handling outliers, and converting the target attribute into a categorical format. The optimal value of k is identified using the elbow method to determine the model's best accuracy. Findings indicate that the KNN model with k = 1 achieves 100% accuracy, though it shows signs of overfitting, which may hinder its generalizability to new data. Handling outliers and transforming data contributed to improving the model's performance. However, to enhance robustness, further testing with different k values and the use of cross-validation are recommended. Moreover, balancing the dataset and incorporating external variables such as promotional activities or market trends could support more reliable future predictions.