STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE REPLENISHMENT OF ENGINEERING PERSONNEL ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE RYAZAN REGION

Background. This paper provides a statistical and analytical analysis of the prospects for providing engineering personnel to enterprises based on statistical data on the graduation of schoolchildren from the Ryazan region and the results of the Unified State Exam. The purpose of the work is to analyze the overall potential of the region to increase the volume of training in engineering areas of training and specialties and to identify trends at the stage of general training of applicants in the main subjects necessary for the training of engineering personnel in educational institutions of secondary general education, to identify patterns and trends in the arrays of sample populations graduating from grades 9 and 11 in the period from 2017 to 2025. The tasks of processing a number of sample sets of the 9th and 11th grade graduates, analyzing the choice of subjects for the Unified State Exam (USE), distributing applicants by USE subjects in the context of the potential replenishment of engineering personnel for the period from 2019 to 2024 and overcoming the minimum thresholds for admission to universities are considered. Materials and methods. In preparing the materials of the article, methods of data preparation and purification, processing of sample populations based on the construction of variation series, determination of sample fractions, the histogram method for visualizing the data obtained, correlation and regression analysis were used. The analysis of the results of the Unified State Exam is carried out from the perspective of overcoming / not overcoming the minimum threshold set by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation for universities subordinate to it. Results. Based on the results of the analysis, downward trends have been identified in the prospect of replenishing engineering staff associated with a decrease in the quality of school education, and a pattern has been established for a decrease in the number of students taking the Unified State Exam in physics with a simultaneous, but disproportionate, increase in a similar indicator in computer science. The absolute minimum of the Unified State Exam results in many subjects critical for engineering education in 2023 has been revealed. Conclusions. The increase in the number of budget places for engineering training and specialties does not lead to an increase in the popularity of the latter. Such phenomena as shortages, and especially shortages in 2023, when problems with admission arose in a number of metropolitan universities, have become commonplace against the background of a decrease in the quality of applicants' training.