A Methodology for Estimating the Demand for Long-Term Care in Hours: The Baseline Scenario for Greece

Context: Population ageing calls for solutions to ensure the provision of sustainable public long-term care services. While assessing long-term care demand is essential for policy development, a systematic approach for quantifying the required hours of care is largely missing. Objective: To propose a novel methodology for assessing long-term care demand, which encompasses the number of recipients, the required hours per level of care-need and the corresponding staffing requirements, thereby providing valuable insights for policymakers to formulate long-term care public policies. Method: Using microdata from wave 9 of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we classified persons aged 65 and over in Greece into five care-need levels, based on their Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and instrumental ADL (iADL) outcomes. For each care-need level we assessed the number and the type of ADLs and iADLs, as well as the time needed to fulfil each daily activity. Using this information, we calculated a weighted average of the monthly care time needed for each care-need level and the total monthly care hours needed at both regional and national level. Findings: The required monthly care hours at the national level are estimated at 34 million, of which 12.7 million are for personal care, 15.9 million for household chores assistance and 5.7 million for help with social activities. Limitations: As the Greek sample of the SHARE survey does not include respondents in nursing homes, this could lead to an underestimation of total care-need hours. To mitigate this limitation, we incorporated administrative data and applied a correction factor. Implications: A tool for planning long-term care services and designing public policies.