Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: A 23‐Year Spatial Analysis in Colombia

ABSTRACT Objective This study examines the spatial dynamics of climate disasters, violence, and internal displacement in Colombia. Methods We combine data on disasters, displacement, and conflict violence at the municipal level for all years between 1998 and 2021. Through descriptive and cluster analysis, the local Geary statistic, and principal component analysis, we identify distinct geographic patterns and temporal shifts in how these factors interact. Results Our findings reveal persistent spatial clustering, with displacement, violence, and disasters becoming increasingly concentrated over time, particularly in regions historically inhabited by Indigenous and Afro‐descendant communities. We also find strong spatial correlations between these factors, with violence emerging as the primary driver of displacement, especially in the years following the 2016 Peace Agreement. At the same time, certain areas exhibit persistently low levels of displacement, highlighting the uneven geographic distribution of these processes. Conclusions By applying spatial methodologies, this research advances our understanding of the localized and interconnected nature of displacement, conflict, and environmental‐related hazards, offering insights relevant to migration studies, environmental justice, and conflict research.

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Publication Details

Journal
Social Science Quarterly
Published
2025-07-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.70053
Primary Topic
Transboundary Water Resource Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: A 23‐Year Spatial Analysis in Colombia

Juan David Gélvez, Leo Bauer
2 links
Social Science Quarterly
Transboundary Water Resource Management
article

Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: A 23‐Year Spatial Analysis in Colombia

Juan David Gélvez, Leo Bauer
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Objective This study examines the spatial dynamics of climate disasters, violence, and internal displacement in Colombia. Methods We combine data on disasters, displacement, and conflict violence at the municipal level for all years between 1998 and 2021. Through descriptive and cluster analysis, the local Geary statistic, and principal component analysis, we identify distinct geographic patterns and temporal shifts in how these factors interact. Results Our findings reveal persistent spatial clustering, with displacement, violence, and disasters becoming increasingly concentrated over time, particularly in regions historically inhabited by Indigenous and Afro‐descendant communities. We also find strong spatial correlations between these factors, with violence emerging as the primary driver of displacement, especially in the years following the 2016 Peace Agreement. At the same time, certain areas exhibit persistently low levels of displacement, highlighting the uneven geographic distribution of these processes. Conclusions By applying spatial methodologies, this research advances our understanding of the localized and interconnected nature of displacement, conflict, and environmental‐related hazards, offering insights relevant to migration studies, environmental justice, and conflict research.

Social Science QuarterlyVol. 106(4)
University of Maryland, College Park (US)
University of Maryland
Openalex Percentile: Top 79%
Transboundary Water Resource Management
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