Assessing vegetation dynamics in Al Jazirah, Sudan using NDVI-based remote sensing techniques

Abstract The agricultural landscape of Al Jazirah State in Sudan, has undergone significant changes influenced by environmental and socio-political factors. This research used the remote sensing technology of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), to analyze these transformations. Utilizing Sentinel-2 imagery and Google Earth Engine (GEE), tools used to conducted a robust data preparation process to calculate NDVI and perform GIS-based analyses to quantify vegetated areas and monitor temporal shifts from 2016 to 2024. Initial findings indicate a substantial expansion in vegetated area, peaking in 2020, followed by a sharp decline post-2019 due to socio-political unrest, including the December 2019 revolution and the conflict in December 2023. Despite stable climatic variables temperature, rainfall, and humidity political dynamics emerged as the primary driver of observed changes. The total vegetated area peaked at 8044.128 $${Km}^{2}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Km</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msup> </mml:math> in 2020, decreasing to 3384.544 $${Km}^{2}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Km</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msup> </mml:math> by 2024, marking a 42% reduction. The most important element affecting vegetation development, according to correlation analysis, was precipitation ( r = 0.89), but temperature had little effect ( r = 0.04). In addition to highlighting the importance of rainfall in vegetation dynamics, negative correlations between temperature and rainfall ( r = -0.57) and between humidity and rainfall ( r = -0.58) indicate the role of rainfall in vegetation dynamics. This study underscores the profound impact of political instability on agricultural productivity, emphasizing the urgent need for stable governance and effective land management policies to ensure sustainable development in regions facing similar challenges.