Rethinking shrinking cities through urban flows: Network-based insights into coordinated development

Abstract Urban shrinkage poses multidimensional challenges to achieving balanced and sustainable development, especially in rapidly transitioning societies like China. This study rethinks shrinking cities from a spatial flow and network-based perspective by integrating intercity migration and investment data into a coordinated development framework. Drawing on a nationwide dataset covering 345 cities, we construct flow-based urban networks and apply the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) to assess how well economic, social, and environmental systems are functioning in tandem. Our results reveal pronounced regional disparities: shrinking cities in Northeast China show the lowest levels of coordination, while those in economically developed regions demonstrate significantly higher coordination levels. Migration and investment flows from shrinking cities are predominantly directed towards cities with higher coordination levels, but this relationship is weaker for shrinking cities themselves. Distinct factors influencing coordinated development are identified among different types of shrinking cities, underscoring the necessity of region-specific and targeted policy interventions to address urban shrinkage and promote sustainable development.