The Evolution of China’s Soybean Import Patterns and Its Influencing Factors

党的十八大以来，我国始终将粮食安全置于国家战略的核心位置，毫不动摇地坚持把保障人民群众舌尖上的安全作为最高标准。尽管目前我国粮食工业总体发展态势良好，但国内大豆生产自给率低、对外依存度高、进口来源集中等问题的存在仍制约着国家食品安全的构建。为此，本文立足于我国大豆生产困境和进口风险现状，利用2000~2023年我国大豆生产、消费和进口数据，从国内需求、产量、进口价格等多个方面进行分析，刻画了中国大豆进口格局的演变历程，并深入探讨了格局演变的影响因素。研究发现：中国大豆进口格局的演变一方面受土地资源约束，导致国内大豆生产供应远远不能满足巨大的消费需求，进口成为弥补供应缺口的重要途径；另一方面，由于各国大豆产量增长速度和价格的差异，导致我国从各国进口大豆的需求差异变化较大。针对Rotterdam模型检验结果，本文提出了分散大豆进口、优化国内大豆生产以及建立预警机制的政策建议。Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), China has consistently prioritized food security as a cornerstone of its national strategy, unwaveringly upholding the safeguarding of public dietary safety as its paramount objective. Despite the overall positive trajectory of China’s grain industry, challenges such as the low self-sufficiency rate of domestic soybean production, high external dependency, and concentration of import sources continue to hinder the construction of a robust national food security system. For this reason, grounded in the current dilemmas of domestic soybean production and import-related risks, this study employs data on China’s soybean production, consumption, and imports from 2000 to 2023 to analyze the evolution of soybean import patterns from perspectives including domestic demand, yield fluctuations, and import price dynamics. The research further investigates the driving factors behind these shifts. The study finds that the evolution of China’s soybean import patterns is shaped by two primary forces, one is land resource constraints, which render domestic production insufficient to meet soaring consumption demands, necessitating imports to bridge the supply gap; and the other is divergent growth rates and pricing strategies of soybean-producing countries, leading to significant variations in China’s import demand across different regions. Based on the Rotterdam model test results, this study proposes policy recommendations, such as diversifying soybean import sources, optimizing domestic soybean production, and establishing an early warning mechanism.