Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level: flooding and heavy rainfall

Abstract. The flood disaster of July 2021 claimed the lives of more than 220 people in western and central Europe – particularly severely affected was the Ahr Valley in Germany, where the floods caused at least 135 fatalities, damaged and destroyed more than 9000 buildings, and caused billions of euros in damage. To prevent such a disaster from happening again, it is crucial not only to simply rebuild, but also to build up in a way that strengthens resilience to future events. Since time and money are often critical issues in the reconstruction process, it is important to focus on the most vulnerable groups as well as critical and sensitive infrastructures, as these need particular attention and support for risk reduction and resilience building within the recovery process. This paper systematizes how critical and sensitive infrastructures are defined and explores how the flood risk that a sensitive infrastructure is facing can be determined by an easy-to-use framework for qualitative risk assessment. This assessment can be used as a basis for deciding between on-site (re)construction and resettlement, as well as the protective measures to be taken. A detailed application of the framework assessment is carried out with regard to a school for children with disabilities that is located directly at the river Ahr.