Waarom het zo lastig is om protest – en het verloop daarvan – te voorspellen

Why protest – and its course – is so hard to predict Why does one person take to the streets, while another does not? Despite decades of research, it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict who will take action – and under what circumstances. This is partly because studies often focus either on the societal context in which protest occurs, or on individuals’ grievances and motivations. What remains largely invisible is the process that links the two: mobilization. This essay places that very process at the center. The author shows how mobilization functions as the linking pin between individual grievances and collective action, and how this process is becoming more unpredictable under the influence of individualization, digitalization, and shifting social relations. Anyone seeking to understand protest behavior must grasp this often invisible but crucial trajectory. In the conclusion, the author argues that it is becoming increasingly difficult for authorities – such as mayors and police forces – to anticipate protests and how they will unfold. They must navigate the delicate balance between safeguarding freedom of expression and maintaining public order and safety. The author raises the question of whether the explosive increase in demonstrations, along with the changing forms of mobilization and protest, poses a growing challenge to authorities and thereby puts pressure on the democratic process.