A “Pandemic-Proof” Methodology for Outbreak Detection Adapted From COVID-19’s Impact on Notifications of Infectious Diseases in the Netherlands: Surveillance Study

During the COVID-19 pandemic, notifications of 10 infectious diseases declined significantly. The duration of this decline varied among infections, highlighting the need for pattern-specific adjustments. Our study demonstrates that accounting for the reduced notifications impacts alarm threshold calculations for outbreak detection. We therefore recommend amending the alarm thresholds to account for this impact to ensure reliable outbreak detection, so that communicable disease control professionals can act in a timely and data-driven manner. The next step in the development of the "pandemic-proof" methodology is to determine which correction method is most suitable. Further validation by communicable disease control professionals is essential to assess the applicability of the adjusted alarm thresholds for outbreak detection.