INFLUENCE OF CRYPTOCURRENCIES AND THE MICA REGULATION ON MONEY SUPPLY IN UKRAINE: A COMPARATIVE APPROACH BASED ON M0–M3 AGGREGATES

This article examines the role of cryptocurrencies in shaping the money supply in Ukraine’s monetary market, considering the potential implementation of the EU MiCA regulation. The study substantiates an approach to incorporating crypto assets into the structure of monetary aggregates M0, M1, M2, and M3 by introducing a new metric – the crypto aggregate Mk. A comparative analysis was conducted with Eastern European countries that have already adopted MiCA. The research evaluates market capitalization, daily trading volumes, and monthly transaction activity. It shows that in 2024, under conditions of wartime economics, Mk in Ukraine exceeded 5% of M1, which constitutes a significant contribution to the structure of money supply. The comparative approach revealed critical differences between countries operating under MiCA and Ukraine, which still functions in a deregulatory environment. The paper analyzes both quantitative indicators of crypto market activity and potential transformations in monetary policy resulting from the transition to formal regulation of digital assets. A statistical interpretation of monetary aggregates is presented, accounting for the influence of cryptocurrencies. The study also proposes a framework for constructing the Mk aggregate as an indicator of money circulation in the digital economy. Particular attention is devoted to the case of Ukraine, where, amid full-scale war, cryptocurrencies are actively used as a parallel financial infrastructure. The article provides numerical calculations of adjusted aggregates M0’, M1’, M2’, and M3’ after integrating Mk, which allows for the estimation of real money supply volumes inclusive of the crypto segment. Despite a decline in transaction frequency, trading volumes remain high, indicating that the crypto market maintains strategic importance for both domestic and international settlements. The study emphasizes the need to expand the statistical apparatus of monetary analysis, adapt IMF and ECB standards to the realities of crypto economies, and introduce new indicators into the monitoring framework of the National Bank of Ukraine. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the NBU, including the implementation of the Mk aggregate, methodological localization, and routine updates to digital financial statistics aimed at supporting monetary stability in the digital age.