Numerical Simulation and Risk Assessment of Debris Flows in Suyukou Gully, Eastern Helan Mountains, China

Suyukou Gully, located on the eastern slope of the Helan Mountains in northwest China, is a typical debris-flow-prone catchment characterized by a steep terrain, fractured bedrock, and abundant loose colluvial material. The area is subject to intense short-duration convective rainfall events, which often trigger destructive debris flows that threaten the Suyukou Scenic Area. To investigate the dynamics and risks associated with such events, this study employed the FLO-2D two-dimensional numerical model to simulate debris flow propagation, deposition, and hazard distribution under four rainfall return periods (10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year scenarios). The modeling framework integrated high-resolution digital elevation data (original 5 m DEM resampled to 20 m grid), land-use classification, rainfall design intensities derived from regional storm atlases, and detailed field-based sediment characterization. Rheological and hydraulic parameters, including Manning’s roughness coefficient, yield stress, dynamic viscosity, and volume concentration, were calibrated using post-event geomorphic surveys and empirical formulations. The model was validated against field-observed deposition limits and flow depths, achieving a spatial accuracy within 350 m. Results show that the debris flow mobility and hazard intensity increased significantly with rainfall magnitude. Under the 100-year scenario, the peak discharge reached 1195.88 m3/s, with a maximum flow depth of 20.15 m and velocities exceeding 8.85 m·s−1, while the runout distance surpassed 5.1 km. Hazard zoning based on the depth–velocity (H × V) product indicated that over 76% of the affected area falls within the high-hazard zone. A vulnerability assessment incorporated exposure factors such as tourism infrastructure and population density, and a matrix-based risk classification revealed that 2.4% of the area is classified as high-risk, while 74.3% lies within the moderate-risk category. This study also proposed mitigation strategies, including structural measures (e.g., check dams and channel straightening) and non-structural approaches (e.g., early warning systems and land-use regulation). Overall, the research demonstrates the effectiveness of physically based modeling combined with field observations and a GIS analysis in understanding debris flow hazards and supports informed risk management and disaster preparedness in mountainous tourist regions.