Dynamic Evaluation of Forest Carbon Sink Efficiency and Its Driver Configurational Identification in China: A Sustainable Forestry Perspective

Improving forest carbon sink efficiency (FCSE) is the key to mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable forest resource management in China. However, current research on FCSE remains predominantly focused on static perspectives and singular linear effects. Based on panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2008 to 2022, this study integrated the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM)-Malmquist–Luenberger (ML) model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and dynamic fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to reveal the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of FCSE and the multi-factor synergistic driving mechanism. The results showed that (1) the average value of the FCSE in China was 1.1. Technological progress (with an average technological change of 1.21) is the core growth driver, but the imbalance of technological efficiency change (EC) among regions restricts long-term sustainability. (2) The spatial distribution exhibited a U-shaped gradient pattern of “eastern—southwestern”, and the synergy effect between nature and economy is significant. (3) The dynamic fsQCA identified three sustainable improvement paths: the “precipitation–economy” collaborative type, the multi-factor co-creation type, and “precipitation–industry-driven” type; precipitation was the universal core condition. (4) Regional differences exist in path application; the eastern part depends on economic coordination, the central part is suitable for industry driving, and the western part requires multi-factor linkage. By introducing a dynamic configuration perspective, analyzing FCSE’s spatiotemporal drivers. We propose a sustainable ‘Nature–Society–Management’ interaction framework and region-specific policy strategies, offering both theoretical and practical tools for sustainable forestry policy design.