Sustainable Coastal Evolution and Critical Sediment Load Estimation in the Yellow River Delta

The coastline of the Yellow River Delta in China has experienced significant dynamic changes due to both natural and human activities. Investigating its coastal dynamics and understanding the equilibrium with riverine runoff and sediment discharge is crucial for ecological balance and sustainable development in the region. In this study, a coastline extraction algorithm was developed by integrating water index and dynamic frequency thresholds based on the Google Earth Engine platform. Long-term optical remote sensing datasets from Landsat (1988–2016) and Sentinel-2 (2017–2023) were utilized. The End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) methods were employed to quantify coastline changes, and the relationship between coastal evolution and runoff–sediment dynamics was investigated. The results revealed the following: (1) The coastline of the Yellow River Delta exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal variability. From 1988 to 2023, the Diaokou estuary recorded the lowest EPR and LRR values (−206.05 m/a and −248.33 m/a, respectively), whereas the Beicha estuary recorded the highest values (317.54 m/a and 374.14 m/a, respectively). (2) The cumulative land area change displayed a fluctuating pattern, characterized by a general trend of increase–decrease–increase, indicating a gradual progression toward dynamic equilibrium. The Diaokou estuary has been predominantly erosional, while the Qingshuigou estuary experienced deposition prior to 1996, followed by subsequent erosion. In contrast, the land area of the Beicha estuary has continued to increase since 1997. (3) Deltaic progradation has been primarily governed by runoff–sediment dynamics. Coastline advancement has occurred along active river channels as a result of sediment deposition, whereas former river mouths have retreated landward due to insufficient fluvial sediment input. In the Beicha estuary, increased land area has exhibited a strong positive correlation with annual sedimentary influx. The critical sediment discharge required to maintain equilibrium has been estimated at 79 million t/a for the Beicha estuary and 107 million t/a for the entire deltaic region. These findings provide a scientific foundation for sustainable sediment management, coastal restoration, and integrated land–water planning. This study supports sustainable coastal management, informs policymaking, and enhances ecosystem resilience.