Managerial Mastery or Mere Misperception? Exploring the Dunning–Kruger Effect in Agricultural Businesses

Misplaced confidence disguised as competence can lead to broad business blunders. The Dunning–Kruger effect (DKE) is an infamous illusory superiority cognitive bias in which people who perform poorly in certain skills erroneously perceive their task execution as superior to the performance of others. Although it is a metacognitive phenomenon with implications for various domains, it is yet to be directly investigated with managers. The purpose of this study is to bridge the research gap by qualitatively exploring the DKE’s manifestation among managers through 20 semi-structured interviews in agricultural businesses. We found that the DKE manifests at all levels of management; however, it seems that lower-level managers are more susceptible to this cognitive bias. We also present a conceptual framework that highlights the various antecedents and consequences of the DKE, based on our content analysis. This study presents a novel domain affected by the DKE, which was discovered by an unconventional methodological approach. Through the recommendations made, the study also contributes to the SDGs and sustainable leadership and management in agricultural businesses.