Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Coupling Coordination Between Carbon Emission Efficiency and Carbon Balance in the Yellow River Basin

This study investigates the coupling coordination between carbon emission efficiency (CEE) and carbon balance (CB) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), aiming to support high-quality regional development and the realization of China’s “dual carbon” goals. Based on panel data from 74 cities in the YRB between 2006 and 2022, the Super-SBM model, Ecological Support Coefficient (ESC), and coupling coordination degree (CCD) model are applied to evaluate the synergy between CEE and CB. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms are analyzed using kernel density estimation, Moran’s I index, the Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chains, and the XGBoost algorithm. The results reveal a generally low and declining level of CCD, with the upstream and midstream regions performing better than the downstream. Spatial clustering is evident, characterized by significant positive autocorrelation and high-high or low-low clusters. Although regional disparities in CCD have narrowed slightly over time, interregional differences remain the primary source of variation. The likelihood of leapfrog development in CCD is limited, and high-CCD regions exhibit weak spillover effects. Forest coverage is identified as the most critical driver, significantly promoting CCD. Conversely, population density, urbanization, energy structure, and energy intensity negatively affect coordination. Economic development demonstrates a U-shaped relationship with CCD. Moreover, nonlinear interactions among forest coverage, population density, energy structure, and industrial enterprise scale further intensify the complexity of CCD. These findings provide important implications for enhancing regional carbon governance and achieving balanced ecological-economic development in the YRB.