Migration to the Moscow Agglomeration as a Constraint on Regional Growth in the Central Federal Okrug of Russia

Amid slowing economic growth and the rapid concentration of population and investment in the Moscow agglomeration, the development of surrounding regions in the Central Federal Okrug (CFO) has become increasingly relevant. This study hypothesizes that migration to the Moscow agglomeration hinders the development of both the neighbouring CFO regions and the district as a whole. Its aim is to assess whether reduced migration to Moscow could accelerate overall economic growth in the CFO. Using new Rosstat data, the study proposes a method for evaluating the total migration balance across CFO regions from 2010 to 2021, identifying both influencing and dependent indicators. Regions are grouped according to the trajectories of their key indicators from 2009 to 2021 to analyse the impact of population concentration in the Moscow agglomeration. By examining these groups and modelling production functions, the study estimates how shifts in resource distribution might affect the district’s total gross regional product (GRP). Key findings include the dependence of regional migration balance on the ratio of average wages to the subsistence minimum, links to total investment levels (2009–2021), and per capita GRP. Although the two groups of regions differ in dynamics, their development efficiency is similar; slower growth in some regions stems primarily from lower migration-driven investment. The concentration of resources in Moscow ultimately hampers development in other CFO regions, increases interregional disparities, and slows district-wide progress. To mitigate this, the study recommends improving living conditions in the regions and enhancing education and workforce training to meet investor demand. The findings may be of interest to regional strategy developers.