Research on Corporate Financial Strategy Transformation and Risk Management under the Reconstruction of Global Value Chain

In the context of the accelerated restructuring of the global value chain (GVC), enterprises are facing the triple impact of geographical reallocation, technology chain disconnection, and carbon tariff. Based on the panel data of 52 enterprises from 2013 to 2022, this paper constructs a theoretical model of "Value Chain Potential-Financial Strategy-Risk Immunity" (GVC-FSM), and uses the simultaneous equation model (3SLS) and machine learning causal forest method to conduct an empirical test. The results show that every 0.1 unit increase in the upstream degree of value chain upgrading can reduce the financing cost by 1.8%;The probability of cash flow disruption in digital financial transformation enterprises decreased by 34% during the epidemic; ESG risk premiums in carbon-intensive industries amounted to a 12.7% difference in the cost of capital. Accordingly, a three-dimensional financial strategic framework of "strategic resilience-digital twin-ecological governance" is proposed to provide a systematic solution for enterprises to reconstruct their financial competitiveness in a multipolar world.