Analysis and Prediction of the Disease Burden Trend of Rheumatic Heart Disease in China, Asia, and the World from 1990 to 2021

This study uses the 2021 GBD dataset to analyze RHD epidemiological data in China, Asia, and globally from 1990 to 2021. It aims to provide a scientific basis for precise prevention and control strategies. The study assesses RHD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs using DisMod-MR and CODEm models and predicts future trends with Joinpoint software. Results show that global RHD incidence increased from 44.867 to 50.738 per 100,000 from 1990 to 2021, with rising prevalence but decreasing mortality and DALYs. In China, RHD cases and incidence significantly declined, with mortality dropping from 19.071 to 4.215 per 100,000 and DALYs also reduced. In Asia overall, RHD cases increased, but incidence and prevalence slightly decreased, and mortality and DALYs trended downward. Future predictions indicate that RHD incidence may rise among Chinese women but decline among men, with decreasing mortality for both genders. Recommendations include increasing government investment, enhancing early diagnosis and treatment, and mobilizing societal participation in prevention and education to reduce the global RHD burden.