Navigational risk analysis in the area of the new container terminal in Świnoujście

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to analyse and assess navigational safety in the area of the planned container terminal project in winoujcie.Due to the strategic importance of the project, the safety assessment requires a multi-faceted approach, including mathematical modelling and simulation methods.The premise of the analysis is that the level of navigational risk in the analysed area depends on the intensity and structure of vessel traffic in the designated survey sectors.The hypothesis is based on the assumption the level of collision risk is strongly correlated with the number and type of vessels registered in the AIS data for each sector.Design/methodology/approach: The research used a quantitative analysis of AIS (Automatic Identification System) data acquired for the Baltic Sea area for 2019-2022.The data was used to estimate the level of risk in terms of potential collisions and manoeuvring errors.The study is of a practical nature and is based on empirical data and analysis of local shipping conditions.Findings: The use of simulation led to results that identified high-risk sectors and could form the basis for recommendations on navigational safety and the development of future maritime traffic management strategies. Practical implications:The study aims to analyse current AIS data and local shipping conditions, which limits its application to wider geographical contexts.Further research is needed including forecasts of changes in traffic volumes and the impact of meteorological conditions.The analysis can be the starting point for more advanced risk simulations and costbenefit analyses for shipping infrastructure investments.Originality/value: The article brings new value by analysing navigational risk based on AIS data in a specific investment context.It identifies practical steps to enhance navigational safety in one of the key transport areas in the region.It is aimed at both decision-makers responsible for port infrastructure development and professionals involved in maritime safety and spatial planning.