Mapping ESG risks in the polish logistics: a causal layered analysis and foresight perspective

Purpose: This paper examines the barriers, risks, and strategic directions of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) implementation in Poland's logistics sector.It aims to identify institutional and cultural constraints, map ESG risks, and develop future scenarios.Design/methodology/approach: The research is based on a qualitative, exploratory approach combining Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and strategic foresight.It integrates literature review, secondary data analysis, and scenario development, grounded in institutional theory, risk management, and sustainability transitions.Findings: ESG implementation is hindered by systemic, regulatory, cultural, and narrative barriers.Often seen as a formal burden, ESG lacks strategic integration.Three scenarios are developed, with "bottom-up leadership" proving the most resilient.A risk map shows ESG-related risks vary by approach.Research limitations/implications: Reliance on secondary data limits generalizability.Future research should include stakeholder interviews and cross-country comparisons within the EU.Practical implications: Logistics firms must shift from compliance to strategic ESG integration.Public support should address organizational culture and SME capacity.Social implications: The paper redefines the social role of logistics in sustainability transitions, creating broader, value-based ESG narratives.Originality/value: It is the first to apply CLA in analyzing ESG in logistics, giving a multiperspective view of strategic risks and cultural challenges.It provides pragmatic insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners.