Anticipating ESG transitions in polish logistics: a speculative and design futures-based scenario study

The paper will analyze possible directions of ESG changes in the Polish logistics industry in the next decade.We use Design Futures methods and typological speculative thinking.The article seeks to project other ways of fixed evolution paths that can promote the sector's sustainable development.Design/methodology/approach: The study uses a qualitative foresight approach combining Design Futures and speculative scenario writing techniques.The analysis consists of a literature review, secondary data and an analysis of ESG trends in logistics.Based on the above, three scenarios of the future of the Polish logistics sector were developed.Results: Based on the analysis, three scenarios of ESG development in the Polish logistics sector were presented: "Compliance" scenario -ESG as a requirement forced by formality, minimal integration; "Transformation" scenario -full integration of ESG in the strategy of logistics companies; Scenario "Innovation" -ESG as a source of innovation and competitive advantage.All the scenarios assess the sector's potential economic, social and environmental implications. Research limitations/implications:The research is based on assessing secondary data and qualitative evaluation of trends, which may involve limiting the competence of generalizing the results.We based our findings on secondary data analysis and qualitative assessment of trends, which may include determining the potential of generalizing the findings.Further research can be based on empirical quantitative data or training of logistics stakeholders in the industry.Practical implications: The research results can help managers and decision-makers plan logistics ESG strategy.Scenarios are a method of exploring possible development trajectories.We identify opportunities and challenges in ESG implementation in logistics in Poland.Social implications: ESG integration in logistics can assist in raising corporate social responsibility, improving working conditions and reducing negative environmental impact.The scenarios provide insight into how different ESG approaches can impact Poland's society and environment.Originality/value: This article is the first to apply a design futures and speculative approach to ESG in logistics.It offers a new future for researchers, managers, and decision-makers interested in long-term sustainability planning in the logistics sector.