Strategic and maritime implications of the planned FSRU terminal in Gdańsk: a coastal infrastructure perspective

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the planned location of the FSRU (Floating Storage Regasification Unit) terminal in the waters of the Gulf of Gdask with respect to the safety of navigation.The analysis is focused on determining the intensity of traffic of different classes of sea vessels in the approach area to the port of Gdask, indicating an increased risk of potential collision scenarios.The study covers the frequency of vessel passage through the two control gates, allowing the application of probabilistic risk assessment models for future LNG transhipment operations.Design/methodology/approach: The study used in the article consisted of examining how the intensity and structure of traffic of various types of vessels in the approach channels to the Port of Gdask affect the collision risk level in the context of maritime safety of the planned FSRU terminal construction.Findings: Probabilistic modelling of the number of collisions between vessels based on AIS gate data showed that cargo and container vessels pose the greatest collision risk due to their frequent movements and variable traffic intensity.The possibility of manoeuvring collisions involving passenger, service and fishing vessels was also identified.The study points to the need to implement flexible traffic management and tools for safety prediction and management.Research limitations/implications: The probabilistic models used are effective in the overall assessment of dynamics, but do not fully reflect the complexity of interactions between ships and the impact of hydrometeorological conditions.The assumptions made about the randomness and independence of events do not take into account actual operational procedures, such as entry schedules or pilotage.In the future, it would be worthwhile to broaden the approach to the issue by including models that take into account seasonal variations in vessel traffic and environmental data in order to increase the accuracy of hazard forecasting and support safety decisions in the FSRU terminal area. Practical implications:The results of the study can be used in the planning and organisation of maritime traffic in the Port of Gdask area, particularly in the context of integration with the operation of the FSRU terminal.The proposed approach makes it possible to predict potential collision situations.The implementation of such a model can improve navigational safety, increase fairway capacity and reduce the risk of congestion or incidents.For port operators and D. Kotkowska, M. Kocielecki, A. uczak traffic management institutions, such as VTS, this means more efficient resource management and better preparation for handling special vessels, such as LNG.Originality/value: The paper presents the application of probabilistic models based on AIS data to assess navigational safety in the area of the planned FSRU investment.The value of the study lies in its practical approach to navigational safety analysis with a view to the future operation of the terminal.The results may be useful for maritime traffic management authorities, port planners and teams responsible for assessing the impact on the marine environment.The method developed can also be used in other ports with a similar traffic structure.