Export Potential of Samara Oblast (Russia) in Trade with Friendly Countries

In response to sanctions imposed on Russia, there is an urgent need to reorient the country’s export flows toward new markets and diversify its product mix. This necessity is especially acute at the regional level, where the assessment of export potential can help identify new opportunities and inform development strategies. This study evaluates the export potential of Samara Oblast in trade with 82 countries over the period 2005–2021. The analysis focuses on two key commodity groups: fertilizers (HS Code 31) and electrical machinery and equipment (HS Code 85). The research proceeds in two stages. First, a gravity model of international trade is estimated using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method to account for zero trade flows and heteroskedasticity. Second, the model’s coefficients are used to predict the region’s export potential. The results reveal pronounced differences between the two product categories. Fertilizers (HS 31) exhibit strong export potential, with demand from trade partners playing a significant role in shaping export volumes. In contrast, electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85) demonstrate weak global competitiveness and limited growth prospects. These products are primarily exported to less developed markets with high trade barriers, where demand exerts minimal influence. Nevertheless, post-2014 sanctions stimulated modest improvements in this sector’s export performance. The findings offer practical insights for exporters and regional authorities engaged in export development and diversification.