Climate-Driven Dynamics of Landscape Patterns and Carbon Sequestration in Inner Mongolia: A Spatiotemporal Analysis from 2000 to 2020

Understanding the interplay between climate change, landscape patterns, and carbon sequestration is critical for sustainable ecosystem management. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and landscape patterns in Inner Mongolia, China, from 2000 to 2020, and evaluates their implications for carbon sink capacity under climate change. Using remote sensing data, meteorological records, and landscape metrics (CONTAG, SPLIT, IJI), we quantified the relationships between vegetation productivity, landscape connectivity, and fragmentation. Results reveal a northeast-to-southwest gradient in NPP, with high values concentrated in forested regions of the Greater Khingan Range and low values in arid western deserts. Over two decades, NPP increased by 73% in high-productivity zones, driven by rising temperatures and ecological restoration policies. Landscape aggregation (CONTAG) and patch connectivity showed strong positive correlations with NPP, while higher fragmentation values (SPLIT, IJI) negatively impacted carbon sequestration. Climate factors, particularly precipitation variability, emerged as critical drivers of NPP fluctuations, with human activities amplifying regional disparities. We propose targeted strategies—enhancing landscape connectivity, regional differentiation management, and optimizing patch structure—to bolster climate-resilient carbon sinks. These findings underscore the necessity of integrating climate-adaptive landscape planning into regional carbon neutrality frameworks, offering feasible alternatives for mitigating climate impacts in ecologically vulnerable regions.