Dampak Kebijakan Moneter terhadap Kinerja Operasional Perbankan: Studi Empiris pada Return on Assets

This study aims to examine the impact of monetary policy on banking profitability, measured by Return on Assets (ROA). The data used is monthly time-series data from January 2018 to June 2024, obtained from official publications by Bank Indonesia and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). The analysis method employed is Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with the Newey-West estimator, which is capable of addressing issues of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in time-series data. The results of the study indicate that interest rates have a positive and significant effect on ROA. This suggests that an increase in interest rates allows banks to enhance their net interest income by widening the spread between the faster increase in loan interest rates compared to deposit interest rates. On the other hand, inflation was found to have a negative and significant impact on ROA. High inflation exerts pressure on bank revenues, increases operational costs, and raises credit risks, thereby negatively affecting profitability. Meanwhile, exchange rates and money supply show a positive, but insignificant effect on ROA. This study concludes that interest rates and inflation are the macroeconomic factors that most significantly affect banking performance in Indonesia, while exchange rates and money supply have a more limited impact. The findings are expected to provide insights for regulators and the banking sector in managing the effects of macroeconomic changes on profitability