Transportation Complex of the Far East: Structural Changes Against the Background of General Economic Dynamics and Geopolitical Shocks

The transportation complex of the Far East acts as a closing link of the national transportation system in interactions with Asian countries, the importance of which is increasing against the background of geopolitical changes. The Russian government allocates resources for infrastructure development, the intensity of regulation is increasing. This determines the purpose of this work – to analyze the impact of general economic conditions, extra-economic shocks and state regulation on the parameters of the transportation complex of the Far East in 2000–2023. To take into account the differentiation of tasks performed by the transportation sector, the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District is divided into the southern (main transit of extra-regional cargoes in the direction of sea ports) and northern zones (servicing mainly intra-regional turnover). The unevenness of general economic dynamics is taken into account by dividing the 2000–2023 interval into six periods: three periods of conditional stability and growth (2000–2007, 2010–2013, 2016–2019), and three crisis periods (2008–2009, 2014–2015, 2020–2023). On the basis of official statistical data using the method of structural shifts, the national, regional, and sectoral components of the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators of transport (investment, gross value added, number of employees) for the two transport zones of the Far East in each time period were calculated. It is shown that the concentration of the government’s efforts on the development of the transit latitudinal corridor was reflected in the higher indicators of the southern transport zone of the Far Eastern Federal District in relation to the northern one and the predominance of the regional component in the structure of investment dynamics of the southern zone, starting from 2008–2009. The dynamics of the gross value added of transport over 2000–2023 is determined by the national component, both for the southern and northern transport zones, and its change is not symmetrical to the investment growth. Employment in the field of transportation within the individual periods up to 2016 is more related to economic dynamics. Further, its change, in addition to the general trends of the national labor market, is also explained by the specifics of personnel policy of certain types of transport