Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emission in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 2000~2022

土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use/Cover Change, LUCC)所引发的碳排放问题是当前生态环境研究领域的热点，分析和预测典型区域LUCC时空变化有助于区域土地利用结构优化与固碳减排目标的实现。本文基于三峡库区2000~2022年土地利用数据，分析该区20多年LUCC导致的碳排放时空变化特征，利用地理探测器揭示三峡库区碳排放的关键驱动因素，并综合GeoSOS-Logistic-CA模型和灰色预测模型模拟2030~2050年惯性发展、耕地保护和生态保护三种情景下库区土地利用碳排放的时空差异。结果表明：(1) 2000~2022年三峡库区土地利用净碳排放量逐年上升，22年间增幅超360%，其中建设用地为最大碳源，林地为最大碳汇，重庆主城区等为主要碳排放高值区，库腹等区域为碳汇区域。(2) 人口密度与GDP总量是影响三峡库区土地利用碳排放的主要驱动力。(3) 惯性情景下2030~2050年三峡库区土地利用净碳排放量仍呈高位增长趋势，耕地保护和生态保护情景下未来20年库区土地利用净碳排放量扩张趋势得到明显遏制。三峡库区土地利用碳排放存在明显时空异质性，通过区域性减源增汇的有效策略，可以促进库区绿色低碳可持续发展。The carbon emission caused by Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is a hot research topic at present. Analyzing and predicting the temporal and spatial changes of LUCC-induced carbon emission in typical regions are conducive to the optimization of regional land use structure and the realization of carbon sequestration and emission reduction targets. Based on the land use data of the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRa) from 2000 to 2022, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal changes of carbon emissions caused by LUCC over the past 20 years. Geodetector model was used to reveal the key drivers of land use on carbon emissions in TGRa, and GeoSOS-Logistic-CA model and grey prediction model were combined to simulate the spatio-temporal difference of land use and carbon emissions in TGRa from 2030 to 2050 under three development scenarios: inertial development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection. The results show that: (1) The net carbon emissions from land use in TGRa increased year by year with an increase of >360% from 2000 to 2022. The construction land was the largest carbon source, while the forest land was the largest carbon sink. The main urban area of Chongqing City was the key area of high-value carbon emission, and the warehouse area was a significant carbon sink area. (2) Population density and total GDP are the main driving forces affecting land use carbon emissions in TGRa. (3) Under the inertia scenario, the net carbon emissions of land use in the TGRa will still show a high growth trend from 2030 to 2050, and the expansion trend of net carbon emissions of land use in the TGRa in the next 20 years will be significantly curbed under the scenarios of cultivated land protection and ecological protection. There is obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land use carbon emissions in the TGRa. Effective strategies for regional source reduction and carbon sequestration enhancement can promote sustainable green and low-carbon development in the reservoir area.