Should We Use Behavioural Predictions in Organ Allocation?

Medical predictions, for example, concerning a patient's likelihood of survival, can be used to efficiently allocate scarce resources. Predictions of patient behaviour can also be used-for example, patients on the liver transplant waiting list could receive lower priority based on a high likelihood of non-adherence to their immunosuppressant medication regimen or of drinking excessively. But is this ethically acceptable? In this paper, we will explore arguments for and against behavioural predictions, before providing novel empirical evidence on this question. Firstly, we note that including behavioural predictions would lead to improved transplant outcomes. Fairness could also require prioritising those predicted to engage in healthier behaviours: consistent with using behavioural predictions in other contexts such as psychiatry and substance misuse. Conversely, behavioural predictions may be judged too inaccurate or discriminatory, or it may be thought unfair to deprioritise based on future behaviour. In part two, we performed an online survey of 172 UK adults. When presented with possible factors relevant to liver allocation, most thought predictions of higher medication adherence (78.6%) and lower future alcohol use (76.5%) should be used but not predictions of lower future criminality (24.7%) and higher societal contribution (21.2%). Randomising participants into two groups, 69.8% of participants found deprioritising a patient based on their predicted medication adherence acceptable (91.9% found a nonbehavioural prediction acceptable). We did not identify an ethically relevant difference between behavioural predictions and other medical predictions already used in organ allocation. Our sample of participants also appeared to support behavioural predictions in this context.