The Extinction Trajectory of the Crimean Juniper (Juniperus excelsa) Species in Central Anatolia Under Global Climate Change

The Crimean juniper (Juniperus excelsa) species belonging to the Juniperus genus, which is a species native to various harsh environments, exhibits remarkable resilience, especially in droughts. However, due to changing climate conditions on a global scale, Crimean juniper distribution is at a critical junction. This study aims to delineate both the current and potential distribution models of Crimean juniper in the Central Anatolian region. To achieve this, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach was employed, incorporating environmental and climatic variables from the Chelsa dataset. The model results identified mean annual air temperature, elevation, precipitation of the driest month, and roughness index as key contributors to the species current distribution. The model demonstrated strong performance, with an AUC of 0.888 for the training dataset and 0.792 for the test dataset, classifying it as a “good model”. In this context, simulations were conducted for the years 2070 and 2100 under three different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), based on the current distribution map of Crimean juniper. The simulation outcomes indicated that by 2070, the species’ distribution will experience significant decrease and fragmentation, with the potential for near complete disappearance by 2100. In conclusion, this study underscores the detrimental impacts of global climate change on the distribution of Crimean juniper in the Central Anatolian region.