National Energy and Climate Plan: How Much Coal for the Polish Energy Sector by 2040?

The global economy enters the year 2025 with brand new challenges, related to political tensions and growing economic competition between the US, China and Europe. In February this year, the European Commission announced the Clean Industrial Deal program, which declares the continuation of the decarbonization process of the EU economy, but taking into account measures to maintain its global competitiveness at the same time. For the national economy of Poland, exposed to high electricity prices and significant carbon footprint, an effective new energy policy is expected to facilitate the competitiveness with products from global markets. The new National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), announced in October 2024, presents such proposals for action and, as a result, attempts to define a decarbonized energy mix of Poland in 2040. The primary objective of the paper is a critical analysis of the assumptions adopted in the draft of the NECP. The discussion will focus in particular on the risk associated with meeting the schedule for the introduction of nuclear energy into the national system, and the complete replacement of coal-fired control capacities with new gas sources, in view of the risk of availability and price of the latter fuel. The materialization of the risk of failure to meet the investment schedule means the need for alternative energy supplies to the power system from other sources. The paper is an attempt to identify the possible alternative scenarios for ensuring the capacity and power generation gap.