Risk Assessment of Aircraft’s Takeoff Overrun or Failure to Clear the Obstacle over the Runway Threshold during Takeoff with All Engines Operative

This article presents a methodology to calculate the risk of aircraft running off the runway or failing to clear the obstacle of 10.7 meters requirements during the take-off operation by means of mathematical modeling. Particularly, the article presented herein provides theoretical quantification of the risk of an aircraft exceeding the predetermined and/or designed runway takeoff length considering the permissible risk value of one accident or incident out of a million operations (10−6). The modeling is demonstrated by means of comprehensive calculation of the Boeing 737-800 aircraft takeoff phases in view of the maximum takeoff weight, the airplane aerodynamic characteristics and the condition of the runway surface. The presented calculation algorithm is paving the way for the methodology of design of runways based on the theory of risk. It is worth noting that the other takeoff scenarios, the takeoff with one engine non-operative engine and the rejected takeoff are also solved. However, these scenarios will be presented separately in different papers.