Changes in the residential migration in the Tokyo metropolitan area after the COVID-19 pandemic

Until recently, many large cities received migration back to their city centres. However, some large cities, including Tokyo, lost in-migration and experienced out-migration from the centre after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify the relations between the migration population and socio-geographical characteristics in a large city after the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on a comparison with pre-pandemic relations. Tokyo metropolitan area was used as an example. We obtained annual data from 2019 to 2022 on inter-municipalities migration in Japan and official survey data for socio-geographical features for origin and destination municipalities to create a modified gravity model. The results showed that the variables included in the original gravity model related to migration from and to the Tokyo metropolitan area both before and after the pandemic. This implied that the basic relation of people migrating close to where they lived was consistent before and after the pandemic. However, we found that more people migrated to areas with more green spaces and retail facilities and farther from the central business district (CBD) in 2020, 2021 and 2022 than in 2019, and more people migrated to areas with larger houses in 2021 and 2022 than in 2019. This implies that residential preferences might change after the pandemic and the Tokyo metropolitan area might be affected by the forces of decentralisation and polycentricity.