Simultaneous Reductions in Forest Resilience and Greening Trends in Southwest China

As an essential part of terrestrial ecosystems, forests are key to sustaining ecological balance, supporting the carbon cycle, and offering various ecosystem services. In recent years, forests in Southwest China have experienced notable greening. However, the rising occurrence and severity of droughts present a significant threat to the stability of forest ecosystems in this region. This study adopted the near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) and the lag-1 autocorrelation of NIRv as indicators to assess the dynamics and resilience of forests in Southwest China. We identified a progressive decline in forest resilience since 2008 despite a dominant greening trend in Southwest China’s forests during the last 20 years. By developing the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and Shapley additive explanation framework (SHAP), we classified forests in Southwest China into coniferous and broadleaf types to evaluate the driving factors influencing changes in forest resilience and mapped the spatial distribution of dominant drivers. The results showed that the resilience of coniferous forests was mainly driven by variations in elevation and land surface temperature (LST), with mean absolute SHAP values of 0.045 and 0.038, respectively. In contrast, the resilience of broadleaf forests was primarily influenced by changes in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and soil moisture (SM), with mean absolute SHAP values of 0.032 and 0.028, respectively. Regions where elevation and LST were identified as dominant drivers were mainly distributed in coniferous forest areas across central, eastern, and northern Yunnan Province as well as western Sichuan Province, accounting for 32.9% and 20.0% of the coniferous forest area, respectively. Meanwhile, areas where PAR and SM were dominant drivers were mainly located in broadleaf forest regions in Sichuan and eastern Guizhou, accounting for 29.9% and 27.7% of the broadleaf forest area, respectively. Our study revealed that the forest greening does not necessarily accompany an enhancement in resilience in Southwest China, identifying the driving factors behind the decline in forest resilience and highlighting the necessity of differentiated restoration strategies for forest ecosystems in this region.